A major report commissioned by the United Kingdom Warehouse Association (UKWA) and delivered by the research consultancy, Global 78, entitled Feeding London 2030, warns that an urban logistics crisis is looming which if not addressed now could even lead to a shortage of essential food supplies on shelves both for grocery retailers and other food outlets. "Things are becoming stretched across London's food and drinks supply chains and current logistics thinking is no longer fit for purpose," says the report's lead author, Andrew Morgan. He continues: "New trends in the way food and drinks are bought and consumed, added to the capital's changing population profile and a transport infrastructure that is already creaking, are bringing significant challenges to food and drinks manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, caterers, transport and logistics companies. Supply in food and drink that is both safe and delivered on time to London's retail and food service outlets at an appropriate cost will become increasingly difficult unless steps are taken to address issues highlighted in the report," he warns.
Some of the issues examined in detail include:
- The impact of the increasingly congested urban environment
- New consumer demand profiles for food and drink
- Current trends in delivery frequencies, times and volumes
- Changes in the grocery retail sector that impact supply chains
- Significance of the hospitality and food sector
- Maintenance of hygiene and food safety through the supply chain
- The logistical pressures associated with food waste and other waste systems
The report's researchers engaged about 100 stakeholders and to give an idea of the logistics complexities in London it looked at Greenwich as a microcosm reflecting the challenges right across London. It focussed on Greenwich's 125 food outlets, where one restaurant could have 13 deliveries a day. But like any other report's predictive value, especially one covering 13 years, they are only as good as the assumptions on which their analyses are based.
One of the report's key assumptions is that London's population will grow from its present record 8.4 million by another million come 2030. Much of London's population growth in recent years has been driven by immigration but post Brexit such inflows may be sharply curtailed as Britain takes back control of its borders. Other population growth dampeners could include pressures and irritants from living in London, where housing costs, whether to buy or rent, are forcing many people to consider moving out, an easier option today thanks to IT developments that allow many more people to work from home.
Among the major irritants is the much-vexed issue of air pollution levels, 80% of which derives from road transport, routinely exceeded daily by a wide margin and leading to an estimated annual 9,000 premature London deaths and many thousands more with serious pulmonary diseases which is putting the NHS under intolerable strain. Many major cities in Europe and elsewhere are now proposing to ban diesel vehicles entirely by 2025 but Britain's logistics transport companies, at least half of whose vehicles are diesel, seem unprepared for the obvious emission controls that must come into force and which could seriously impact the report's pointers to help stakeholders "get on the right foot," to quote the report's authors. '
With those caveats in mind, the 100-page report should "provide essential intelligence for all stakeholders for successful forward planning," says UKWA's chief executive officer.
Available from UKWA at £790 or £395 for UKWA members.
|UKWA's CEO, Peter Ward|